Basketball Shorts First Annual NBA Season Predictions Spectacular!
Basketball Shorts First Annual NBA Season Predictions Spectacular!
Predictions from a basketball generalist with too much caffeine in his system.
Let’s get this hype train moving!
A quick story: In the Before Times when I still worked in an office, a few of my colleagues and I created what we called our “NBA Prediction Spreadsheet.” Before the start of every NBA season, all participants could input a category into the spreadsheet (ex. Who will be the first head coach to be fired this season?), and everyone had to add their guess. We had about 20 or so categories each season. A point system was created, and the person with the most points won. It was super low-stakes fun. The winner was treated to lunch by the losers at the conclusion of the NBA Finals. I loved it.
This is my homage to that spreadsheet.
What follows are my non-data-driven, totally by-gut feeling, hyped-up on coffee, sometimes irrational NBA predictions for the 2024-25 season!
Most Valuable Player - Luka Doncic
It’s time. I mean, it’s not Leonardo DiCaprio finally winning an Oscar time, but the fact that Luka doesn’t have a couple of MVP trophies on his mantle is a travesty. While his lack of MVPs certainly speaks to the incredible depth of the league, his lack of MVP trophies is reaching “What does this guy have to do to win an MVP?” territory. Yes, Jokic is incredible. Yes, Embiid deserved his. But good lord, how does a player who averaged 33.9/9.2/9.8 not win an MVP?? I think SGA will give him a run for his money, but it’s definitely Luka’s year.
Rookie of the Year - Zach Edey
This year’s race leaves me a little cold after last year's Wemby/Holmgrem showdown (although, Wemby was obviously going to win). Let’s go with Edey and see what happens.
Defensive Player of the Year - Victor Wembanyama
And it won’t be close.
To that end, my next prediction: Wemby will average more than four blocks per game this season. He’ll be the first player to do it since the late Dikembe Mutombo in the 1995-96 season.
The eight Eastern Conference teams that will make the playoffs (after the play-in):
In no particular order,
Boston Celtics
New York Knickerbockers
Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Milwaukee Bucks
Orlando Magic
Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Yes, these are the same teams that made the playoffs last season, but I don’t see any other team making the jump this year.
The eight Western Conference teams that will make the playoffs (after the play-in):
In no particular order,
Dallas Mavericks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Sacramento Kings
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Pelicans
Phoenix Suns
Minnesota Timberwolves
I will say that I was *so close* to swapping Houston for the Pelicans (whatever, haters). Actually:
New Orleans PelicansHouston Rockets
Lakers are out. Come at me (or not).
Draymond Green will have the lowest number of ejections of his entire career.
Nikola Jokic will again top 20 triple-doubles, but Damontas Sabonis will lead the league in this category, eclipsing 30 for the first time in his career.
The Kings are out for blood this year.
Number of times Nikola Jokic will smile during a nationally televised game:
I’m putting the over/under at 1.5. I’m taking the under.
The Boston Celtics will not repeat as Champions.
It’s just not happening.1
Zach Lowe takes the year off and just enjoys watching hoops this season.
This one breaks my heart. It’s not known whether Lowe will sign a new deal or if his ESPN contract includes a non-compete clause for a period of time. Either way, I don’t think we will see him in his usual capacity this season. I hope I’m wrong. If not, I’ll sit back and enjoy his Twitter X and Instagram accounts.
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Enjoy the season!
It’s probably going to happen.